The Answer Man

Thursday, January 11, 2007



DIVISIONAL ROUND PREVIEW: COLTS-RAVENS

By far the one match-up that causes the most intrigue among NFL fans this weekend is Colts-Ravens. There's the obvious battle between the historic Colts offense versus the historic Ravens defense. Both have been the best in their sport for almost a decade. Both are led by two all-time greats at their position (Peyton Manning and Ray Lewis). Then there's the face off between old division rivals Manning and Steve McNair. The two players that once shared the MVP as they battled against each other in the AFC South will now meet in the playoffs for only the second time ever. McNair has been to a Super Bowl before only to taste defeat, but now he must battle Manning again to get one step closer to returning. The final storyline may not have any affect on the field but should have everyone in the city interested. The Colts will return to Baltimore, the city they once abandoned years ago for Indianapolis, to take on Baltimore's new favorite team. The entire city has not let their grudge die since the Colts left, and they should have plenty to say about it during the game on Saturday. As for the game itself, Saturday's match-up looks like on that will keep the city talking long afterwards as well.

QUARTERBACKS: After watching Peyton Manning last weekend against the Colts, I'm not quite sure how anyone could have any confidence in him during the playoffs. I've been able to see most of his regular season games this season, and it is his decision making and accuracy that sets him apart from all the other QBs. However, during the playoffs he tries to force passes to covered receivers. This gets him in trouble which is the cause for his increase in interceptions in postseason play. In fact if it wasn't for his his defense of all things, Peyton would be sitting at home rigth now. With a game against the vaunted Ravens defense coming up, it would be difficult to believe that he will turn things around. While the Colts have a QB that shines in the regular season, the Ravens have one that is made for the postseason. McNair has the reputation as a gutty QB that will do whatever it takes for the win. While his best days are behind him, he still has shown at times this season that he remains one of the better leaders in the NFL. If he can get the defense to worry about both his arm and his legs, he should do more than enough to put his team in position to advance to the championship game. EDGE: BALTIMORE

RUNNING BACKS: Last week in Indianapolis it was supposed to be Larry Johnson that would make the headlines running the football, but it was Joseph Addai who ended up the star. With Manning unable to find his groove throwing the ball, he relied on Addai to lead the way on offense for most of the day. Addai showed that at least for him, the playoffs were no obstacle. This week could be a bit different against what is most likely the best defense Addai has rushed against in his life. Although the opponent is tougher, Addai should still do a good enough job that the Ravens will have to respect the run on Saturday. The Ravens running back, Jamal Lewis, has a bit more playoff experience. Lewis, already the owner of a Super Bowl ring, tends to only play well against bad rush defenses these days. The bigger Lewis should wear down the small defensive line of the Colts by the time the day is done. The question mark about Lewis is whether he is a big game player. Since his 2000 yard rushing season, Lewis has failed to perform when the pressure is on. Most likely the running game will be a non factor in this game, but I'd still take the younger and more explosive Addai over the tentative Lewis. EDGE: INDIANAPOLIS

RECEIVERS: Much like Peyton Manning, his favorite target Marvin Harrison also tends to struggle in the playoffs. While this probably more connected to Manning's lack of accuracy in the playoffs more than anything else, it is still worth keeping an eye on. His equally as talented teammate Reggie Wayne looked good last week as he scored a TD, and unlike Harrison, there is no reason for concern with him. The other weapon, their TE Dallas Clark, finally showed he was back to normal last week when he topped 100 yards receiving. With Clark playing well, the Colts become an even more dangerous team than before. The Ravens lack the firepower on offense form the skill positions that the Colts have. Derek Mason is an experience, savvy veteran, but like most of this Ravens offense, his best days are well behind him. Their other WR, Mark Clayton, has the talent to become one of the league's better wideouts in a few years, but he does not strike fear into the defense yet. The X-factor among the Ravens is offense is still TE Todd Heap. His size, speed and toughness will give the Colts fits trying to cover him. If he can have a big day, it will almost certainly mean a victory for the Ravens. However, if any offensive player is going to have a big day, history tells us it will be on the reliable offense of the Colts. EDGE: INDIANAPOLIS

DEFENSE: It's impossible to tell if what we saw last week from the Colts defense was an accurate representation of what they can actually do on a weekly basis. They put up a performance like last week earlier in the season against the Bengals, but then followed it up by letting Ron Dayne rush all over them. Most likely their performance this weekend will fall somewhere in between those two games. They key to victory on Sunday oddly enough will not be slowing down Jamal Lewis, but instead getting pressure on Steve McNair. If they can hit him down a few times and force him to throw the ball away sooner than he wants to, it should disrupt the entire offense's rhythm. The Ravens clearly have a lot more talent on the football, and they will look to do a lot of the same things that the Chiefs did to Peyton Manning last week. If they can confuse him with different coverages and flush him out of the pocket, they should be able to make the Colts rely heavily on the run like they did last week. The bottom line for both defenses is that if they win the turnover battle, they would have done more than enough to win the game. EDGE: BALTIMORE

SPECIAL TEAMS: With Adam Vinitieri on your team, you always feel like your special teams is in good hands. Although, he no longer has the benefit of playing indoors, Vinitieri is still the best pressure kicker in the game. There is no reason to think that if the game is on the line that he will not make the kick for the win. The Ravens also have a fairly good kicker of their own in Matt Stover. He is equally as accurate and battle tested as his opponent's kicker. While he has never been faced with a kick that has the magnitude of the ones Vinitieri has taken, Stover's history suggests that he is almost as sure a bet to make it if the opportunity arises. The return game for both teams has struggled in recent weeks. Since the Ravens lost B.J. Sams, they no longer have that threat to take any kick back to the house. The talent on special teams lies only in the kicking game, and with such solid veterans on both sides only pressure kick experience is the factor that determines who gets the egde. EDGE: INDIANAPOLIS

FINAL ANALYSIS: Like all the games this weekend, this match-up is particularly difficult to pick. Both teams have been here before, and with such contrasting styles facing off on Saturday, even the smallest of mistakes could be the determining factor in the game. Manning has a history of playoff failures, but eventually he has to step up to his critics and produce in the crunch time. While a game against a defense like Baltimore's may not seem like the ideal place for this to happen, I expect Manning to have not a historic day, but a day in which he limits his mistakes and gives his team an opportunity to win. However, this may not be enough against the wily McNair and the Ravens defense. I expect McNair to lead some inspired drives to put the Ravens in position to win the game. Now I've said that both teams will have a chance to win this game, so it must be time to pick a winner. There is the old phrase that says defense wins championships, but you must get to the championship to win it. The Ravens won't have that chance. Manning steps up, and that is why he and the Colts get the nod in this battle. PREDICTION: COLTS 20 RAVENS 17

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