The Answer Man

Saturday, January 13, 2007



DIVISIONAL ROUND PREVIEW: PATRIOTS-CHARGERS

Here its is. The marquee match-up that is so enticing that even if you don't like the NFL, you can't help but get a bit excited for. The Chargers-Patriots second round match-up may not have the history behind it that makes these two teams rivals, but with so many stars on both sides of the ball it is clearly a game that will not lack fire power. The best RB in football, the QB with the highest winning percentage in postseason history, and the mastermind behind three Super Bowl championships will all be on the field together on Sunday. Not to mention the game will also include Antonio Gates, Shawne Merriman, Philip Rivers, Corey Dillon, Laurence Maroney, and Teddy Bruschi. This game looks more like the AFC Pro Bowl roster than just a second round match-up. Even though much has been made about one coach (Bill Belichick) with countless postseason success facing off against another (Marty Schottenheimer) with none, once the game begins its fate will be out of their hands and in the hands of their superstars.

QUARTERBACKS: Nothing has done more with less this season than Tom Brady. After having both his starting WRs leave the team, Brady was left with an inexperience group of individuals who would catch his passes. Brady never complained and never lost a step as he put together another solid season en route to another division title. He will be facing a fast, swarming San Diego defense, but nothing has seemed to rattle Brady in his postseason history. With only one loss in five trips to the postseason, Brady will be the most dangerous player on the field come Sunday. Like Brady once upon a time ago, Philip Rivers will see his first postseason action on Sunday. Making your first postseason start has been an overrated aspect of the playoffs for years. Rivers may feel a few jitters before the game, but once he touches that football he will be ready to play. What he should worry about instead is Coach Belichick's knack confusing young QBs. What Rivers must do on Sunday is not turn the ball over and do enough so that the Pats cannot stack the line against Tomlinson. EDGE: NEW ENGLAND

RUNNING BACKS: In their first round win over the Jets, New England used a very balanced rushing attack to move their way up and down the field. Maroney received 18 carries to Dillon's 10, but when they got down inside the five yard line, it almost seemed like a given that Dillon would punch the ball into the endzone. Against the fast defense of San Diego, it's likely that once again Maroney will receive more carries than his teammate Dillon. If both RBs play like they did against the Jets, it should be enough to give the Patriots a chance to win. The other man running the ball in this game will be NFL MVP LaDainian Tomlinson. As you probably have heard, LT broke the NFL record this season by scoring 31 TDs. The Chargers passing game could be non-existent, and he would still give them a legitimate shot to win on Sunday. What LT must do is rush for close to 150 yards and at least a touchdown. More importantly, he must continue to be a threat out of the backfield catching the ball. If the NFL's best player continues to play the way he did in the regular season, the Chargers will be in good shape to host the AFC Championship game. EDGE: SAN DIEGO

RECEIVERS: As mentioned before, the Patriots receiving core is nothing to write home about. It consists of Reche Caldwell, Jabar Gaffney and Chad Jackson. None of these players are going to scare you on defense, but each one of them just does their job and doesn't make mistakes. Last week it was Gaffney who received most of the targets from QB Tom Brady, but with such a strong offensive scheme, it's anyone's guess to who will lead the Pats in receptions on Sunday. The Patriots could also use their big, athletic TE Ben Watson to give the passing game a lift in both receiving and blocking. The Chargers WRs are not too much better than New England's. The aging Keenan McCardell, Vincent Jackson, and Eric Parker are usually non factors in the Chargers offense. Jackson is the team's best deep threat and has been known to have a big catch here and there. The best WR on both teams plays TE for San Diego. Antonio Gates is the reason Rivers gets by every week. His size, speed, and instincts make him not only the best TE in football, but also the best red zone threat as well. If Gates gets on a roll, there may be no stopping the San Diego offense. EDGE: SAN DIEGO

DEFENSE: Last week against the Jets, the Patriots defense caused two crucial turnovers that turned the game's momentum. However, this week even that may not be enough to ensure victory on Sunday. There is one thing they must do, and that is slow down LaDainian Tomlinson. Earlier in this season when the two teams met, Tomlinson ran for 134 yards and 2 TDs. It may be easier said than done, but the Patriots' defense needs to have a bend but not break philosophy that keeps Tomlinson out of the endzone. Without the versatile Rodney Harrison, that job gets even tougher. The Chargers defense has a task as daunting as the Patriots do. Except in San Diego's case they must disrupt Tom Brady who is one of the few QBs ever who seems never to make a mistake come postseason. While it may tough to stop him, what they need to do is force him to make throws earlier with pressure from players like Shawne Merriman. Also, if they could take away the running game, the Chargers should be in a good position to win Sunday. When analyzing the two defenses, it looks as though which ever one plays better will wind up playing next week. EDGE: EVEN

SPECIAL TEAMS: When the Chargers were in the playoffs just two years ago, it was a back and forth game that cam down to the kicking game in overtime. When their kicker Nate Keading, who was then a rookie, had a chance to give his team a victory, he missed the kick. The memory most likely still haunts Keading today, and it will be interesting to see how he performs if given the same situation. The Patriots on the other hand no longer have the luxury of having Adam Vinatieri kick for them in the playoffs. Instead they will go rookie Stephen Gostkowski. While he looked good at times this seasons, it was clear that Coach Belichick does not have much confidence in him on longer field goals. The Patriots kick return game is equally as shaky, and if anyone will be bring the ball back on kicks it will be the Chargers. Their explosive backup RB Michael Turner has dazzling moves and ridiculous speed that makes him a threat to take it to the house. The Patriots may attempt to make sure he doesn't touch the football too often. EDGE: EVEN

FINAL ANALYSIS: While most of these plays are superstars, what the Patriots have that the Chargers don't is playoff experience. What you have to decide when picking a winner for this game is, does that really matter? In the case of the Chargers it doesn't. There is no reason to believe that Tomlinson, Gates, and Rivers will fold under the pressure of the postseason. This game will come down to the players, not experience. Stopping LaDainian Tomlinson and Tom Brady is a tall task for any defense, so today's game should be close throughout. No team here has a clear weakness on either side of the ball that would cause any doubts. Therefore, it should be one of the closer and more compelling postseason games you may ever see. When all is said and done, expect LaDainian Tomlinson to have several trips to the endzone as well as a trip to the AFC Championship game as the Chargers will barely edge the Patriots. PREDICTION: CHARGERS 28 PATRIOTS 27

1 Comments:

  • At 10:47 PM, Blogger Brian said…

    too bad marty schottenheimer's huge glasses couldn't lead the Chargers to victory.

     

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