The Answer Man

Friday, February 02, 2007



SUPER BOWL PREVIEW: COLTS-BEARS

It's early Friday afternoon now. By now both teams are accustomed to the frenzy and craziness of Super Bowl week. Media day has come and gone. It is football time now. Unlike Super Bowls of recent memory, this game has a lot of added flavor to it. The story lines are abundant that range from African-American coaches, to Manning vs Urlacher, to Grossman versus himself. The recap could have so many headlines for a game with so much going on. Will it be, Manning finally wins big one? Maybe, Hester returns Super Bowl to Chicago? Perhaps, Vinatieri does it again? Regardless, all that is certain now is that there will be winners and losers, heroes and goats, legends and horror stories. Put aside all of the hype that has been buzzing around the city of Miami for almost two weeks now. On Sunday there will be sixty minutes of football. Nothing else matters, nothing else will be remembered.

QUARTERBACKS: Peyton was praised endlessly for his final drive against the Patriots, as he should have been, but on a whole his AFC Championship performance was not at the level of the regular season Peyton Manning. After two sub par and one average performance in the playoffs, the pressure is on Peyton to raise his game or face the questions that followed Dan Marino during the latter stages of his career. If the Colts expect to come back from an 18 point deficit this week, they should probably not bother on making any orders for Super Bowl rings. The Bears defense has shown some trouble defending against the long pass, and if Manning can connect on a few of those early, he should have a very solid day. Even a bigger question mark than Manning is Bears QB Rex Grossman. At times during their win against the Saints, Grossman looked like the second-coming of Brett Favre. However, more often than not I questioned whether he knew how to play football. Personally, I feel as though Grossman would have to play the game of his life in order for the Bears to win. He might play better than usual, but I don't see him reaching that level. Manning is far more likely to positively affect the game's outcome. EDGE: INDIANAPLOIS

RUNNING BACKS: Much has been made of how the Colts' defense has taken their game to a new level in the postseason, but the Indianapolis running game is also playing better than anyone has expected. Earlier in the season teams were able to just play the pass because the Colts' running game was so inexperienced that it was barely a threat. As the year went on both Dominic Rhodes and Joseph Addai evolved into productive running backs. The threat of a running game has brought the Colts' offense back to the level it was at when they had Edgerrin James. If one of these running backs can have a big game, it may be hard to stop the Colts from winning the Super Bowl. Like the Colts, the Bears also rely on a running back tandem rather than just one man. Things were not supposed to be this way, but once the Bears had run away with the NFC, they began to rest Thomas Jones and gave the young Cedric Benson some work. Chicago was so impressed with the way Benson ran and how he was a perfect compliment to Jones that they continued to give him a share of the carries in the postseason. Combine the experience of Jones with the explosiveness of Benson, and Chicago has one of the better running games in football. Both teams will look to run early and often to open up their passing game. Whoever runs more successfully could determine who wins this game. EDGE: EVEN

RECEIVERS: It's quite obvious in this game that the talent at the wide receiver weighs much heavier on the Indianaplois side. With Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne catching his passes, Peyton Manning is blessed with one of the better receiver combinations in recent memory. While Wayne has maintained his Pro Bowl status during the postseason, once again Harrison has struggled in the bright spotlight of the playoffs. Harrison uncharacteristically has struggled to get open and hold onto passes. Whatever funk Harrison is in, the Colts must hope that he will be at the top of his game come Sunday. Peyton's other favorite target has been tight end Dallas Clark. After a relatively unproductive and injury marred regular season, Clark has exploded for two monster games so far during the 2007 playoffs. If all Manning's targets are playing well on Sunday, they will be impossible for Chicago to stop. Speaking of the Bears, their receivers may not have the name recognition that the Colts' wideouts have, but they have still been very productive at what they do. Muhsin Muhammed has been Rex Grossman's reliable possession receiver, and it seems as though as long as Rex throws it in his direction, Moose will catch it. Muhammed's compliment is the speedy Bernard Berrian. Chicago's deep threat is usually good for at least one big gain each game. Like Indy, Chicago looks to utilize their TE. Desmond Clark fills that role for the Bears, and whenever Grossman is in trouble he looks to his big tight end. Along with these players, don;t be surprised if Andy Moorehead, Ricky Proehl, Ben Utecht, or Rashead Davis have an impact on this game. EDGE: INDIANAPOLIS

DEFENSE: The drastic improvement to a defense that had once been described as pathetic has been the story of the Indianapolis Colts postseason so far. Rather than changing schemes or using different players, the change has seemed to come instead from players focusing more and realizing what is at stake. The way the Colts play defense is a perfect matchup against Rex Grossman. The Colts use the cover two defense, and their philosophy is to bend but not break. Grossman's strength is completing deep passes, not the short ones to the outside or over the middle. Therefore Chicago may look to run the ball more, and despite the improvement from awful to awesome that the Indianapolis defense experienced, there is still no guarentee that they will play well on a weekly basis. Chicago's defense is the one that makes headlines. While they were off the a record start this season, the loss of Tommie Harris and Mike Brown had caused some issues towards the end of the regular season. They seem to have recovered in their rush defense, but the pass defense may still be a question. Despite forcing Drew Brees to fumble numerous times in the NFC Championship game, he did have nearly 300 passing yards by the time the fourth quarter began. If they can apply similar pressure to Manning, they may be able to make up for the growing holes in their secondary. Regardless, Brian Urlacher and the Bears defense should have enough tricks up their sleeve to be the superior defense on the field in Miami. EDGE: CHICAGO

SPECIAL TEAMS: Often in the Super Bowl a key play on special teams, for better or for worse, will swing a game in one teams direction. The Colts have a kicker who has been the hero of two Super Bowls, and clearly if the game comes down to a last second field goal they will feel very confident having the leg of Adam Vinatieri. The Bears have a solid kicker of their own, Robbie Gould, who has already made a game winning field goal this postseason. Due to his inexperience, Chicago would still be sweating it out if the game was Gould's to win. However, Chicago has a different special teamer that has been known to make an impact. Rookie kick returner Devin Hester will be returning to the city where he played college and will look to give his team an edge in the return game. My prediction is that we will see Hester in the endzone on Sunday, but he will need help from his teammates if he expects to leave Miami with a championship. EDGE: EVEN

FINAL ANALYSIS: In a Super Bowl with so many playmakers on both sides of the ball, it may appear like a difficult game to judge on the surface. For me, I find this game to be one of the easiest ones to pick in years. Peyton Manning does not need to be Joe Montana on Sunday, he just needs to protect the football. The Colts offense may struggle initially against the Bears defense, but as the game wages on Manning will start to figure out the various schemes Chicago will throw at him. For the Bears offense, it is impossible for me to envision any scenario in which Rex Grossman plays well. He makes too many mistakes to lead his team to victory. The only way Chicago can win this game is if Devin Hester and the Bears defense score touchdowns and their running game is unstoppable. The Bears would need almost a perfect day to win this game, and they will not get it. Here's an early congratulations to your Super Bowl champions, the Indianapolis Colts. PREDICTION: COLTS 31 BEARS 17

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