The Answer Man

Friday, January 19, 2007

CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP PREVIEW: SAINTS-BEARS

After another long and exciting season NFL fans across the country will sit down on Sunday to see which two teams will be playing for the Super Bowl. Over in the NFC, the game features the Chicago Bears and New Orleans Saints. The game, which is being played in the Windy City, will feature two teams with two very different paths to Sunday. The Bears were possibly the most criticized 13-3 team in NFL history. Throughout the season questions arouse in the Chicago media and around the NFL. Does this team have enough offense to go along with their defense? Will Rex Grossman determine whether this team lives or dies in the playoffs? Is it time to make a quarterback switch? How will the defense play without Tommie Harris? For all these questions, the Bears were able to come up with answers and now find themselves playing for a spot in the Super Bowl. The only question for the New Orleans Saints this season was, when will this team run out of gas? After going 3-13 during the 2006 season, the Saints have symbolized the recovery and resilience of their city by landing a trip to the NFC title game. While a lot of the faces have changed on the team, it is still one of the biggest shocks in NFL history to see the Saints a win away from the Super Bowl. The only questions remaining for these two teams is: Will the Bears survive another week, or will the Saints keep their momentum going? After Sunday, there will be not only an answer but even more questions leading up to the Super Bowl.

QUARTERBACKS: Lost in the dazzling performance by the Saints running game against the Eagles last week was the solid job done by quarterback Drew Brees. In his second career playoff game, Bress looked poised in the pocket and completed a very accurate 62.5% of his passes. He finished the day with 243 yards in the air and a touchdown. Brees never tends to be rattled, and it would take a relentless pass rush to get him off his game. He is clearly the more consistent QB of the two in the game, and because the Bears pass defense has been shaky at best the last few games, Brees should have another good day. The Bears have the enigma known as Rex Grossman. With a struggling defense, it was actually Grossman who kept Chicago in the game and gave them a chance to reach the NFC title game. He threw for 282 yards and made several key plays that set the Bears up for the win. It was his two turnovers, though, that cause angst among Chicago natives. Grossman has not shown the ability to to play well in consecutive games lately. I feel the problem for Grossman is his game preparation. He tends to only play well if he knows the game is important. The games don't get much bigger than this, so Grossman should be focused, but i doubt he will outshine Brees on Sunday. EDGE: NEW ORLEANS

RUNNING BACKS: It's a wonderful thing to have one elite running back in the NFL these days. So think how great it is for the Saints to have two. Last week against Philadelphia, the Saints showed that with Reggie Bush and Deuce McAllister in the backfield, they may have the best rushing attack in football. The Saints finished with over two hundred rushing yards led by the bruising running style of McAllister. With two backs with such different styles, the Saints are a pain for any team to slow down. New Orleans will use their rushing attack early and often to keep the Bears defense unbalanced and unaware of what is about to come. The Bears have their own two-headed rushing monster of their own that they will use to attack the Saints defense. Early in the season Chicago would rely exclusively on Thomas Jones to pound the rock, but the late season emergence of Cedric Benson made them change their scheme. Benson is clearly more physically gifted than Jones, but it is Jones reliability and nose for the endzone that makes him an asset. Together they ran for 111 yards on 33 carries against Seattle last week. While the numbers don't cause any sort of excitement among NFL fans, they do enough to get opposing defenses concerned about the Bears rushing attack. However, both Chicago backs must do a lot more on Sunday to overtake McAllister and Bush in the headlines. EDGE: NEW ORLEANS

RECEIVERS: New Orleans has arguably the deepest receiving core in all of football, and that is why they have been able to survive the injury to their star wideout Joe Horn. Horn is as questionable this week as he has been for the last month and a half. He will give his best to get out there, but it should be a shock to no one if he fails to suit up. Drew Bress may once again have to rely on his talented, young receivers Marques Colston, Devery Henderson, and Terrance Copper. They are all blessed with great speed and size which makes them almost impossible to cover at times. Chances are that at least one of them will be giving the Bears defense fits by day's end. The Bears also have some talent at the wide receiver position. Their veteran route runner Muhsin Muhammed is always there for Grossman to rely on. Chicago also has big play guys like Bernard Berrian and Rashad Davis. They need only one mistake to burn the defense and catch a long touchdown pass. While Chicago may have some talent at their wide receiver position, it does not compare to what the Saints have to offer. EDGE: NEW ORLEANS

DEFENSE: Like the offense, the defense is much improved this season for New Orleans. That being said it still has a way to go before it is among the top units in the NFL. What the Saints defenders do well is applying pressure to quarterback while trying to create turnovers in the secondary. However, due to their ball hawking nature, the Saints can sometimes get burned on big plays. Also, against a quick running back, the Saints have some trouble wrapping him up. The Bears would be wise to use more Benson than Jones on Sunday as they try to expose their sometimes weak rush defense. For Chicago, as good as they have looked on defense early in the season, they have looked equally as bad in the later stages of the year. They have had some trouble defending against the big play once their safety Mike Brown was injured, and they had some trouble stopping the run once their massive defensive tackle Tommie Harris was lost for the season. Unfortunately for Chicago, those are two if the strengths for the Saints. Despite the Bears trouble of late, they still have the knack for making the big play when needed, and that is enough to make them the better defense on the field on Sunday. EDGE: CHICAGO

SPECIAL TEAMS: The Saints have been solid in this era all season so far. They have a kicker, John Carney, who has almost as much experience as anyone in this league. His lack of "big kick" opportunities may worry the Saints a little, but only time will tell how he will perform under pressure. The Saints let Bush do the punt return duties this season, and he instantly became one of the biggest threats in the league to score on a punt once he was given that position. Perhaps the only bigger threat in the NFL has been Bears return man Devin Hester. After returning six for touchdowns in the regular season, Hester would have had another last week were it not for a penalty that brought the six points back. The Bears also saw last week that they have a kicker capable of hitting the clutch kicks. Unless you've been on Mars since last Saturday, you are aware that their kicker Robbie Gould nailed a 49 yard field goal to win the game. Chicago's all-around great play on special teams gives them the slight advantage over the Saints. EDGE: CHICAGO

FINAL ANALYSIS: After one of the better playoff weekends in playoff history, it will be hard for this weekend's slate of games to live up to the expectations. If the Bears want to win on Sunday, they will need to play their best game all season. Their defense needs to regain its early season form, and their offense has to be able to play as well if not better than New Orleans' offense. For the Saints it's simple. Play like they did last week, and it should be enough for them to punch their ticket to Miami. The one thing that could disrupt that is the weather. The question all week has been, how will the Saints be affected by the cold weather of Chicago? My answer is that the Saints went on the road to beat the Giants in late December, and if they can win in December in New York, than what makes people think that the weather in Chicago will affect them. The dream season will continue for New Orleans in what will be a one sided affair. PREDICTION: SAINTS 31 BEARS 20

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