The Answer Man

Friday, March 30, 2007

SOME MLB PREDICTIONS

And away we go....

AL East
Yankees
Red Sox (Wild Card)
Blue Jays
Orioles
Devil Rays

AL Central
Indians
Twins
Tigers
White Sox
Royals

AL West
Angels
A's
Rangers
Mariners

NL East
Mets
Phillies
Marlins
Braves
Nationals

NL Central
Cubs
Cards
Brewers
Astros
Reds
Pirates

NL West
Padres
Dodgers (Wild Card)
D-Backs
Giants
Rockies

PLAYOFFS

ALDS
Angels over Yankees
Red Sox over Indians

ALCS
Red Sox over Angels

NLDS
Mets over Dodgers
Padres over Cubs

NLCS
Mets over Padres

WORLD SERIES
Mets over Red Sox

MVP
AL- David Ortiz
NL- Jose Reyes

CY YOUNG
AL- Johan Santana
NL- Roy Oswalt

ROOKIE OF THE YEAR
AL- Daisuke Matsuzaka
NL- Chris B. Young

MANAGER OF THE YEAR
AL- Eric Wedge
NL- Lou Pinella

BREAKOUT YEAR HITTER/PITCHER
AL- Nick Markakis/Felix Hernandez
NL- Prince Fielder/Rich Hill

DARK HORSE TEAM
AL- Toronto Blue Jays
NL- Arizona Diamondbacks

MOST DISAPPOINTING TEAM
AL- Chicago White Sox
NL- St. Louis Cardinals

Enjoy the season!

Saturday, March 10, 2007

I'M BACK....AND THE HERE IS THE FUTURE

So...it has been awhile. Let me give you guys a quick update of what I have been up to over the past few weeks.

1) Following my most recent post, I took a trip over to Vegas for the NBA All-Star game. It was truly an awesome experience. I intended to start writing again as soon as I got back, but well, we clearly see that did not happen.

2) As I've mentioned in earlier posts I attend Villanova University. In recent weeks I've had midterms and also seen an increased workload at the newspaper and radio station.

3) The last few days I've been over at Madison Square Garden hanging out at the Big East Tournament.

What the future holds is a lot of uncertainty. The team by team previews have come to an end. I will put up some predictions for the season. I hope to write a few posts a week during the baseball season, so you all have that to look forward. Until then....

-David

Tuesday, February 13, 2007

2007 TEAM OUTLOOK: PITTSBURGH PIRATES

OFFSEASON OVERVIEW: The Pirates chose to give a few young players another year to develop rather than sign quality veterans to upgrade those positions. While this plan will most likely backfire, the Pirates could have a very good core group of guys if the plan does work. The one move that made headlines out of Pittsburgh was their trade with the Braves. They sent the talented but expendable reliever Mike Gonzalez to Atlanta for first baseman Adam LaRoche. If LaRoche plays as well as he did last year he will prove to be the protection for Jason Bay that the team has lacked. Their biggest signing of the offseason was pitcher Tony Armas Jr. The often injured ex-Nationals starter will most likely compete for a spot at the back end of the rotation. Pittsburgh is also hoping on newly signed reserves Einar Diaz and Jose Hernandez to add some depth to a lineup that needed it last season. Possibly the most interesting signing they made was that of reliever Dan Kolb. He was a quality pitcher in a small market before imploding as the Braves' closer. If he regains his old form, he could once again be a tremendous asset to the bullpen. The only two losses from last year's team are Jeromy Burnitz and Joe Randa. Neither veteran should be missed this season.

OFFENSE: Once again the Pirates offense may have trouble scoring runs this season. Part of the problem is the lack of production from the leadoff hitter. Chris Duffy, the team's center fielder, will once again be given a crack at the job. He has good speed but his .317 OBP last season could force him out of that position. The light hitting Jack Wilson will follow him and hit second. The shortstop is another poor hitter and together they make up the worst top of the order in baseball. The heart of the order is the strongest part of the Pirates lineup. Jason Bay is by far the team's best player, and he should have an even better season this year with the threat of Adam Laroche hitting behind him. Also some where in the middle of the lineup will be last year's NL batting champ Freddy Sanchez. Despite winning that title last year, Sanchez must prove that last season was no fluke to some of his skeptics like myself. In reality, he will probably still be a decent hitter who's average will be closer to .300 than it was last season. Xavier Nady is the last reliable bat in the lineup, and his ability to hit for power and get on base should make him one of the more reliable players on Pittsburgh. Catching this season will be Ronny Paulino. He appears to be a solid hitter that can hit for contact and play well behind the plate. He emerged as the favorite to catch after a year long battle with Ryan Doumit in 2006. Finally, Jose Castillo and Jose Bautista will compete for second base and the eight spot in the lineup this season.

PITCHING: The Pittsburgh rotation is comprised mostly of young starters looking to live up to their potential. The most experienced starter is Zach Duke, who is entering his third season with the Pirates. On any other team Duke would be a middle of the rotation guy, but here he is the staff ace. Second in the rotation is Ian Snell. Often considered the best of the young starters, Snell has enough talent to eventually overcome Duke as the team's best starter. The third and fourth starters are Paul Maholm and Tom Gorzelanny. Neither of these guys performed too well last year, but will once again be given a shot because Pittsburgh does not have any better alternatives. The final spot will be given to one of several guys who will battle for the job in spring training. Tony Armas Jr. is the favorite for the spot, but his chronic injuries could open the door for Shawn Chacon or Cuban defect Yoslan Herrera. The bullpen was led by Mike Gonzalez last season who did not blow a save all year. However, with his departure Salomon Torres will be counted on to fill his shoes. Torres has been a quality reliever over the years and should be a fine option at closer. The rest of the Pittsburgh bullpen features pitchers with experience. This suggests that the bullpen may actually be the strength of the team. Damaso Marte, Matt Capps, Dan Kolb, and John Wasdin all will have significant roles in middle relief.

X-FACTOR: Chris Duffy clearly has some of the best speed in the majors which was shown by his 26 steals in just 84 games. It was a truly remarkable statistic considering Duffy barely hit .250 in 2006. If Duffy can get his average closer t0 .300, he will be able to create runs for the heart of the order. A consistent leadoff man would be a big step towards a competitive baseball team in Pittsburgh.

BEST CASE SCENARIO: All of their young starters progress, Duffy becomes a tremendous leadoff hitter, and Torres is able to be just as effective closing games as Mike Gonzalez was. Pirates fans can expect their team to be in the Wild Card hunt for awhile if the Pirates play to the best of their ability.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: All of the Pirates starters are inconsistent, LaRoche takes a step back due to a change in scenery, and Jim Tracy is this team's manager. The Pirates are the favorite for last place in the NL Central, and a year like this will put them there.

Monday, February 12, 2007

2007 TEAM OUTLOOK: CHICAGO WHITE SOX

OFFSEASON OVERVIEW: You could make a very compelling argument that the White Sox had the worst offseason of anyone in baseball. They would have been better off if they just did not make a move. Their offseason was highlighted by two puzzling trades they made. The first was when they traded starting pitcher Freddy Garcia to Philadelphia for Gavin Floyd. Alone this trade is not bad for Chicago. They not only saved some money, but also opened up a rotation spot for young arm Brandon McCarthy. However, just a few weeks later the White Sox dealt McCarthy to Texas for a few middle level prospects. Once blessed with a surplus of quality starting pitchers, the White Sox now have a shortage. These trades will almost surely come back to haunt them at some time during the season. The rest of their offseason did not make as many headlines. Chicago brought in former Angels' outfielder Darin Erstad to compete with Brian Anderson in center field. Erstad has had several injury problems over the last few years, and it would be a surprise to see him play close to a full season. The only loss that may be felt this season in free agency was David Riske. He was quality reliever, but should be easy to replace.

OFFENSE: The White Sox will go with almost the same group of guys in their lineup as they did last season. Speedster Scott Podsednik should see most of the leadoff duty to start the year, but if he struggles again he will most likely lose some playing time to Pablo Ozuna. Batting behind him will be Tadahito Iguchi. He has proven to be both reliable at second base and at the plate, and his job should not be in any question. The heart of the Chicago order could be one of the best in baseball. Jermaine Dye, Paul Konerko, and Jim Thome are all coming off monster seasons, and there is no evidence that they are close to slowing down. As long as these players stay at the level they have been playing at, the White Sox should be in the playoff race all season. Batting behind them will be third baseman Joe Crede, who took a major step towards reaching his potential last season. Another solid season could give the White Sox the best lineup in baseball. Towards the end of the lineup will be catcher AJ Pierzinski. He is a very good hitter for a catcher, and the White Sox are a lot better when he is playing. Darin Erstad and Brian Anderson will split time in center field. Any offensive production out of either would be an added bonus to Chicago. The only question mark in the order is shortstop Juan Uribe. He has been a solid contributor the last few season and would be a lock to play were it not for his legal issues. If he is forced to miss the season, Alex Cintron will be the starter and hit ninth.

PITCHING: The White Sox rotation consists of several talented pitchers who have been known to underachieve. The best case of this is number one starter Mark Buehrle. Going into last season, Buehrle was considered one of the few sure bets to give you a good start in the major leagues. A completely out of character 2006 season has people around baseball questioning if the year was a fluke or a sign of things to come. Both Jose Contreras and Javier Vasquez are blessed with great stuff, but they seem to never be able to go an entire start without imploding in one inning. The other familiar sight in the rotation is Jon Garland. Although Garland gives up a lot of runs for an 18 game winner, he seems to always find a way to win. Battling it out for the now vacant fifth spot will be Gavin Floyd, Heath Phillips, and Charlie Haeger. The bullpen has a bit more uncertainty than the starting rotation. One definite is that Bobby Jenks will be the closer. He has done a very effective job the last few years and has developed into one of the better young closers in baseball. Outside of Jenks and setup man Mike MacDougal, there is little consistency and experience within the White Sox bullpen. Matt Thornton, David Aardsma, and Andrew Sisco will all fight for spots within the pen.

X-FACTOR- After a dreadful 2006 season, the White Sox will be counting Mark Buerhle to bounce back. Last year his ERA rose by a run and a half while his strikeouts dropped by more than 50. The White Sox have a rotation full of second and third starters, but to go anywhere some one will need to step up and be the staff ace. Buehrle must be the pitcher to fill that role again for Chicago.

BEST CASE SCENARIO- All the White Sox starters pitch to their potential, Jermaine Dye continues to play at an MVP level, and people become more reliable in the middle of the bullpen. With all these things taking place, it would not be a surprise to see the White Sox return to the World Series.

WORST CASE SCENARIO- Buerhle is awful again, both trades come back to haunt Chicago, and Jim Thome begins to show his age. Once again the White Sox will be on the outside of the playoffs looking in if a season like this occurs.

Friday, February 09, 2007

2007 TEAM OUTLOOK: MINNESOTA TWINS

OFFSEASON OVERVIEW: We have become accustom to quiet offseasons in Minnesota and nothing has changed this year. You know your team plays in a small market when the only two free agents they signed were Ramon Ortiz and Jeff Cirillo. Since there is really nothing else to speak of in this section, I'll take a few moments to speak about the minimal impact they will have for the team. Cirillo is the team's best bat off the bench, and he will get some time at third base if Nick Punto struggles this year. The veteran Ortiz will compete for a starting spot towards the back end of the rotation. The Twins did lose a big part of their recent success this offseason when pitcher Brad Radke decided to retire. His veteran leadership and steady production will be hard to replace. The Twins also lost Stewart and Phil Nevin to free agency, but both players are past their prime and should not be major losses in any sense.

OFFENSE: Once again the Twins will be playing with one of the better everyday lineups in the American League. The Twins have quite possibly the two best hitters in the AL in Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. Both are perennial MVP candidates and tough outs for any pitcher. They would not be as much of a threat if it weren't for the excellent protection around them. While Torii Hunter may have lost a step, he still has 30 homer potential and cannot be taken lightly by any pitcher. While Hunter may be on the decline, it was Michael Cuddyer who had a breakout year for Minnesota last season. For the first time in his career he went over 100 RBIs. Cuddyer's ability to play several positions was also a huge help to Minnesota when they experienced their share of injuries. Outfielder Rondell White should also be able to add some power if he is able to stay healthy. Adding speed to the lineup will be second baseman Luis Castillo. His ability to get on base makes him a catalyst for the Twins offense. Rounding out the lineup are designated hitter Jason Kubel and shortstop Jason Bartlett. Both are light hitters and may be replaced before the season is over. Some positive contributors off the bench should be outfielder Lew Ford and infielder Jeff Cirillo.

PITCHING: The Twins' staff will again be led by the league's best starter, Johan Santana. There is not a pitcher in baseball who has proven to be better or more durable than last year's Cy Young. There is no reason to doubt that he won't be at this level for the upcoming season. The rest of the rotation is a giant question mark for Minnesota. Carlos Silva will start the season as their number two starter, but his inconsistency makes him too unreliable of an option. Young arms Boof Bonser and Matt Garza will be counted on to fill major spots in the rotation. They both have excelled in the minor leagues but have not shown that high level of pitching in their short major league stints. Glen Perkins, Sidney Ponson, Scott Baker, and Ramon Ortiz will all compete for the last spot in the rotation. Their bullpen is led by dominant closer Joe Nathan. He may not get the headlines that fellow closer Mariano Rivera gets, but he has been just as effective the past few years. Their set up men Juan Rincon and Jesse Crain have also been very steady the past few years, and together they make one of the better late inning bullpens in baseball. As good as they are late in games, the Twins do have some trouble in middle relief. Several current minor leaguers will be counted on to fill roles in the sixth and seventh innings of games.

X-FACTOR: When the young superstar Francisco Liriano went down last year with arm trouble, the Twins learned that they would be without him for not only the end of 2006 but also all of 2007. Without him and Radke this season, the Twins are in search of some one who can step up and be the number two starter on the staff. That responsibility will fall on the shoulders of young pitcher Matt Garza. His impressive minor league numbers led to his rise to the top of many prospect lists. Garza struggled in his first major league action, and he must show this season that he can be as effective in the majors as he was in the minors. If this happens, he will be the number two starter they are looking for.

BEST CASE SCENARIO: Morneau and Mauer continue playing at their MVP level, Cuddyer shows that last season was the beginning of a good career, and Garza becomes this year's Liriano. If everything falls into place, the Twins will be making their first return to the World Series in over decade.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: Hunter's play experiences a major drop off, Santana is the only reliable starter in the rotation, and pitchers begin to figure out Justin Morneau. A year like this would almost certainly result in a failure to make a repeat appearance in the playoffs for the Twins.

Wednesday, February 07, 2007

2007 TEAM OUTLOOK: DETROIT TIGERS

OFFSEASON OVERVIEW: Coming off a trip to the World Series, Detroit looked to keep the same core of guys that were on that team while adding a few players to make the team more complete. Their biggest move of the offseason was the trade that allowed them to acquire Gary Sheffield. Granted, Sheffield is past his prime, he still is the power threat that the Tigers lacked in the middle of their lineup last season. Giving up top pitching prospect Humberto Sanchez may prove to be costly down the line, but the Tigers now that their time is now. The team was very quiet outside of the Sheffield trade as shown by only making two other moves the rest of the winter. They retained first baseman Sean Casey who will continue to be their everyday guy. They also signed veteran Jose Mesa who will add some depth and experience to an already talented bullpen. The Tigers also did not lose many players from their American League Championship team. The one player who may be missed is reliever Jamie Walker, but he was only a middle man in the bullpen and will most likely not be too difficult to replace. The Tigers addressed their one need this offseason, power, and by still keeping most of their players, they have themselves in solid shape for next season.

OFFENSE: The balanced Detroit lineup that a took a trip to the World Series last season will look very similar in their defense of the American League crown. Possibly its biggest question lies at the top with lead off hitter Curtis Granderson. There is no question that the center fielder has the bat to hit there, but he has shown that he lacks patience and decision making skills at times. Also setting the table will be the reliable and underrated Placido Polanco who will also handle duties at second base. The heart of the lineup should be very dangerous with designated hitter Gary Sheffield, right fielder Magglio Ordonez, and first baseman Sean Casey most likely getting the majority of the RBI chances. What makes the Tigers lineup so productive is that their bottom of the lineup can at times be as strong as the top. Veteran leader and catcher Ivan Rodriguez will most likely hit at this part of the order, and despite his age, he is still the type of hitter that opposing pitchers fear. Also, the Tigers talented shortstop Carlos Guillen will be at the back end, and his perennial .300 average makes him one of the tougher outs at the end of the lineup in the league. Rounding out the order will be Craig Monroe, who can provide some extra pop, and the steady Brandon Inge. Reserve outfielder Marcus Thames should also see plenty of at bats this season off the Tigers bench.

PITCHING: One of the biggest surprises last season was how well the Tigers pitching staff performed. Their success was the main reason why they experienced such a drastic turnaround. Once again the veteran Kenny Rogers will head the staff. Rogers doesn't rely on striking people out, so the Tigers should not be concerned about him declining with age. The real staff ace is Jeremy Bonderman. He has gotten better every year in the majors and could take the final step this season to becoming a star. The young Justin Verlander will sit in the middle of the rotation, and his combination of 100 mph fastballs and off speed pitches should show that his Rookie of the Year was no fluke. At the bottom of the rotation are Nate Robertson and Mike Maroth. Usually both these guys are dependable and good enough to give their team a chance to win. Along with a solid rotation the Tigers also have a strong bullpen. Their closer once again will be Todd Jones. Rather than using speed, Jones is just a crafty pitcher who manages to get guys out. If he does however falter now that he is towards the end of his career, the flame throwing Joel Zumaya will be waiting in the wings as the team's closer of the future. Along with Zumaya, Fernando Rodney has a great young arm, and together they make up the best set up tandem in baseball. The newly acquired Jose Mesa and Wilfredo Ledezma will also eat up some innings for the Detroit bullpen.

X-FACTOR: In a lineup that has tremendous talent throughout, it is essential that men get on base to created RBI opportunities for the middle of the order. After last season, there have been some doubts whether Curtis Granderson can do that as a lead off hitter. Last season he struck out 174 times and had an on base percentage of .335. Numbers like those will not allow him to keep the top spot in the order in 2007. It's crucial that he can put up better numbers because a consistent Granderson that bats first would be part of the ideal lineup for Detroit.

BEST CASE SCENARIO: Sheffield regains his old form, both Bonderman and Verlander become elite starters, Granderson shows that he can be a lead off hitter, and the Tigers can recapture the magic from last season. This would not only result in a trip to the World Series but also with a win there.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: Age catches up with Rogers, Sheffield, and Jones, Verlander suffers the sophomore slump, Zumaya experience more arm trouble, and many Tigers show that 2006 was their career year. If this is what happens in Detroit, there would be a slip back into mediocrity for the Tigers.

Tuesday, February 06, 2007

2007 TEAM OUTLOOK: LOS ANGELES ANGELS OF ANAHEIM

OFFSEASON OVERVIEW: It seems as though every season the Angels are always competing with the Athletics for the AL West crown. With the Athletics losing Barry Zito this offseason, the Angels looked to upgrade enough to regain their division title. The move that made headlines was giving Gary Matthews a five year 50 million dollar contract. A lot of people, including myself, consider this a bit of a risk considering Matthews Jr.'s 2006 season could very well have been a fluke that was overrated by one catch he made in center field. In addition to Matthews Jr., the Angels added controversial Shea Hillenbrand to the offense. Although he may make a stupid comment here and there, there is no question that Hillenbrand has a pretty solid bat. He will fill in at DH until Juan Rivera heals from his injury. The Angels spent the rest of their money on middle reliever Justin Speier and long reliever Darren Oliver. Both players did a very good job last season and should only improve an already strong Angels' bullpen. Anaheim did lose two mainstays on their team for years when Darin Erstad and Adam Kennedy opted to sign with other teams. The Angels should only miss them in the clubhouse because Erstad was injury prone and Kennedy's replacement is the young and talented Howie Kendrick. They had no problem in letting them leave this offseason. While the jury is still out on the Matthews signing, the Angels on a whole did a very good job addressing their needs and filling them this offseason.

OFFENSE: The Angels have one of the more balanced offenses in the American League but their problem could lie in the power department. The only big bat in their lineup is Vladimir Guerrero. Granted, Vlad has been known to carry a team by himself, however the Angels would like to have some serious protection behind him. The player that used to carry this tag was Garret Anderson, but he has been on the decline due to injury and age. The Angels will have plenty of men on base this season, starting with Chone Figgins and Orlando Cabrera. Both players did a terrific job setting the table and stealing bases so that Guererro would hit with runners in scoring position. Other veterans that should help this team score are the previously mentioned Gary Matthews Jr. and budding star Howie Kendrick. The young second baseman has shown the tools to be one the best everyday second basemen in the majors this season. At designated hitter, the Angels planned to go with Juan Rivera but the injury to his left tibia forced the them to sign Shea Hillenbrand. The biggest question marks in the lineup are at first base and catcher. Casey Kotchman is the front runner to play first base, but he is clearly a better fielder than hitter and may give way to Hillenbrand once Rivera returns to play DH. At catcher last season the Angels were disappointed with the way Jose Molina played. It would not be a surprise to see Mike Napoli get significant time there this year.

PITCHING: Like their lineup, the Angels pitching staff is very solid from top to bottom. Their staff ace may not be on every one's radar, but John Lackey has evolved into one of the best pitchers in the AL. Towards the middle of the rotation will be Ervin Santana and Kelvin Escobar. Both pitchers have their problems, but on a whole they are productive middle of the rotation guys. Santana stuggles mightily on the road, and if he was ever able to put those problems behind him he would be a very good number two starter. Escobar's struggles come from injuries but in 2006 he was able to have a pretty much injury free season, so those troubles may be behind him. The young Jered Weaver will also be on the staff, and if he can pitch anywhere as well as he did last season he should be a big boost to the Angels rotation. The fifth spot in the rotation will be held by Joe Saunders until Bartolo Colon comes back from his injury. The bullpen gives the Angels a lot of depth and flexibility with their pitching. Theri closer, Francisco Rodriguez, has established himself as one of the best in baseball, and the Angels are always confident that he will get the job done. Joining K-Rod are the durable and talented Scott Shields and Justin Speier who will do the set-up work. Hector Carrasco and Darren Oliver also should prove to be solid contributors to the bullpen before the season is over.

X-FACTOR: As mentioned earlier the Angels rely mainly on Vladimir Guerrero for most of their homers and RBIs. The player that did a good job helping out last season with these categories was Juan Rivera. The key for the Angels is to get back a healthy Rivera before they dig themselves a major whole. If he returns and shows some improvement on his 2006 numbers, he will be the reliable presence that should offer some protection to Vlad in the lineup.

BEST CASE SCENARIO: Kendrick evolves into one of the best second baseman in the league, Weaver continues to improve, Rivera returns and picks up where he left off last season, and Matthews Jr. proves that 2006 season was no fluke. If all this happens, we could be seeing the Angels return to the World Series

WORST CASE SCENARIO: Escobar gets hurt again, Anderson's production significantly drops off again, Hillenbrand is once again a clubhouse cancer, and no one steps up as a reliable cleanup hitter. If this is what the Angels will be facing this season, then it will be their first losing season since 2003.